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Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 247 - 258
https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1596664

Abstract

This study focuses on predicting electricity unit prices in the Çanakkale region by analyzing the effects of environmental, economic, and oil-related factors through machine learning (ML) algorithms. The research addresses the accurate prediction of energy costs amid fluctuating market dynamics by applying Random Forest (RF) and k-nearest neighbor (kNN) algorithms to monthly data from 2015 to 2024. The independent variables used in the models include exchange rate (USD/TRY), oil price (TL/liter), Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and average temperature. The RF algorithm achieves superior predictive accuracy with an MSE of 0.013, RMSE of 0.112, MAE of 0.081, MAPE of 0.087, and an R² of 0.919, outperforming the kNN model across all metrics. The findings reveal that exchange rate and PPI have the most significant influence on electricity pricing. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the use of ML methods in energy price prediction and contributes to developing more accurate and robust forecasting tools for regional energy management and policy-making.

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There are 25 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Environmentally Sustainable Engineering
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Yasemin Ayaz Atalan 0000-0001-7767-0342

Early Pub Date September 30, 2025
Publication Date October 6, 2025
Submission Date December 5, 2024
Acceptance Date July 10, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 9 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Ayaz Atalan, Y. (2025). Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering, 9(2), 247-258. https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1596664
AMA Ayaz Atalan Y. Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region. JISE. September 2025;9(2):247-258. doi:10.38088/jise.1596664
Chicago Ayaz Atalan, Yasemin. “Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-Based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy With ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region”. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering 9, no. 2 (September 2025): 247-58. https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1596664.
EndNote Ayaz Atalan Y (September 1, 2025) Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering 9 2 247–258.
IEEE Y. Ayaz Atalan, “Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region”, JISE, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 247–258, 2025, doi: 10.38088/jise.1596664.
ISNAD Ayaz Atalan, Yasemin. “Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-Based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy With ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region”. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering 9/2 (September2025), 247-258. https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1596664.
JAMA Ayaz Atalan Y. Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region. JISE. 2025;9:247–258.
MLA Ayaz Atalan, Yasemin. “Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-Based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy With ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region”. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering, vol. 9, no. 2, 2025, pp. 247-58, doi:10.38088/jise.1596664.
Vancouver Ayaz Atalan Y. Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region. JISE. 2025;9(2):247-58.


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