Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region

Sena Çadırcı; İbrahim Gürsu Tekdemir

doi:10.38088/jise.1635104

Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region

Abstract

The planning of electrical energy systems can be realized in a more efficient and sustainable way by forecasting energy demand accurately. In this context, short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in optimizing energy production and distribution processes. In this study, short-term load forecasting was conducted using hourly electricity consumption data from a facility located in the Southeastern Anatolia Region between 2019–2022. The data were integrated with meteorological parameters to evaluate the impact of temperature. The performance of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods were compared. According to the results, the ARIMA method was the most successful with an accuracy rate of 92%, followed by the ANN model with 90% accuracy. The MLR method demonstrated relatively lower performance, achieving an accuracy rate of 89%. Moreover, ANN showed a strong capability to model complex relationships, while ARIMA excelled in datasets with seasonality. In conclusion, this study highlights the strengths and weaknesses of different methods, providing valuable contributions to energy planning and emphasizing the importance of analyses conducted using regional datasets.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Electrical Energy Transmission, Networks and Systems, Electrical Engineering (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Sena Çadırcı ^*
0009-0005-7842-9610
Türkiye

İbrahim Gürsu Tekdemir
0000-0003-1381-3513
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

September 1, 2025

Publication Date

December 15, 2025

Submission Date

February 7, 2025

Acceptance Date

May 2, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 9 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1635104

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA83AP69BA

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Çadırcı, S., & Tekdemir, İ. G. (2025). Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering, 9(2), 205-215. https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1635104

AMA

1.Çadırcı S, Tekdemir İG. Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region. JISE. 2025;9(2):205-215. doi:10.38088/jise.1635104

Chicago

Çadırcı, Sena, and İbrahim Gürsu Tekdemir. 2025. “Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region”. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering 9 (2): 205-15. https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1635104.

EndNote

Çadırcı S, Tekdemir İG (December 1, 2025) Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering 9 2 205–215.

IEEE

[1]S. Çadırcı and İ. G. Tekdemir, “Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region”, JISE, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 205–215, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.38088/jise.1635104.

ISNAD

Çadırcı, Sena - Tekdemir, İbrahim Gürsu. “Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region”. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering 9/2 (December 1, 2025): 205-215. https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1635104.

JAMA

1.Çadırcı S, Tekdemir İG. Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region. JISE. 2025;9:205–215.

MLA

Çadırcı, Sena, and İbrahim Gürsu Tekdemir. “Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region”. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering, vol. 9, no. 2, Dec. 2025, pp. 205-1, doi:10.38088/jise.1635104.

Vancouver

1.Sena Çadırcı, İbrahim Gürsu Tekdemir. Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting and Seasonality Analysis Using Temperature and Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Southeastern Anatolia Region. JISE. 2025 Dec. 1;9(2):205-1. doi:10.38088/jise.1635104