Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region

Yasemin Ayaz Atalan

doi:10.38088/jise.1596664

Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region

Abstract

This study focuses on predicting electricity unit prices in the Çanakkale region by analyzing the effects of environmental, economic, and oil-related factors through machine learning (ML) algorithms. The research addresses the accurate prediction of energy costs amid fluctuating market dynamics by applying Random Forest (RF) and k-nearest neighbor (kNN) algorithms to monthly data from 2015 to 2024. The independent variables used in the models include exchange rate (USD/TRY), oil price (TL/liter), Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and average temperature. The RF algorithm achieves superior predictive accuracy with an MSE of 0.013, RMSE of 0.112, MAE of 0.081, MAPE of 0.087, and an R² of 0.919, outperforming the kNN model across all metrics. The findings reveal that exchange rate and PPI have the most significant influence on electricity pricing. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the use of ML methods in energy price prediction and contributes to developing more accurate and robust forecasting tools for regional energy management and policy-making.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Environmentally Sustainable Engineering

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Yasemin Ayaz Atalan ^*
0000-0001-7767-0342
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

September 30, 2025

Publication Date

December 15, 2025

Submission Date

December 5, 2024

Acceptance Date

July 10, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 9 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1596664

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA59UA88ZK

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Ayaz Atalan, Y. (2025). Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering, 9(2), 247-258. https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1596664

AMA

1.Ayaz Atalan Y. Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region. JISE. 2025;9(2):247-258. doi:10.38088/jise.1596664

Chicago

Ayaz Atalan, Yasemin. 2025. “Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-Based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy With ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region”. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering 9 (2): 247-58. https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1596664.

EndNote

Ayaz Atalan Y (December 1, 2025) Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering 9 2 247–258.

IEEE

[1]Y. Ayaz Atalan, “Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region”, JISE, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 247–258, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.38088/jise.1596664.

ISNAD

Ayaz Atalan, Yasemin. “Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-Based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy With ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region”. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering 9/2 (December 1, 2025): 247-258. https://doi.org/10.38088/jise.1596664.

JAMA

1.Ayaz Atalan Y. Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region. JISE. 2025;9:247–258.

MLA

Ayaz Atalan, Yasemin. “Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-Based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy With ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region”. Journal of Innovative Science and Engineering, vol. 9, no. 2, Dec. 2025, pp. 247-58, doi:10.38088/jise.1596664.

Vancouver

1.Yasemin Ayaz Atalan. Consideration of Environmental, Economic, and Oil Factors for Unit-based Estimation of Consumed Electrical Energy with ML Algorithms: A Case Study of Çanakkale Region. JISE. 2025 Dec. 1;9(2):247-58. doi:10.38088/jise.1596664