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İktisadi Beklentiler ve Karar Almada Deneyimsel ve Bilişsel Süreçler

Year 2021, Volume: 30 Issue: 1, 169 - 191, 31.03.2021

Abstract

Bireyin beklenti oluşturma ve karar alma sürecinde beynin içsel ve dışsal bilgi ve tecrübeleri nasıl işlediği ve hangi faktörlerin bu süreçleri etkilediği önemli bir tartışmadır. Bu bağlamda bireyin duygular ve rasyonel muhakeme yetisi ile beklenti oluşturma ve karar alma süreci arasındaki ilişki önemlidir. Ana akım iktisat yazınında beklenti oluşturma ve karar alma sürecinin bilişsel yönü değerlendirilerek yerleşik teoriler oluşturulmuştur fakat bu tip bir yaklaşım duyguların ve duygulanımın sezgisel ve deneyimsel sistemlerle ilişkisini ortaya koymamaktadır. Bu açıdan psikoloji, bilişsel sinirbilim ve davranışsal iktisat yazınında akıl ve duygu metaforları ile ifade edilen deneyimsel sistem ile rasyonel sistem arasındaki ilişkinin analiz edilmesi ve iktisat yazınına daha yoğun bir şekilde dahil edilmesi gereklidir. Psikoloji yazınında uygulanan ikili süreç teorileri, bireyin, bilgi işleme ve düşünme sistemleri üzerine çalışmaktadır. Beyindeki rasyonel muhakeme yetisi ile bilgi işlemenin deneyimsel süreci arasındaki ayrım ve bağlantının ikili süreç teorileri tarafından ortaya konan doğası gösteriyor ki iktisadi yazında ele alınan yerleşik beklenti ve karar alma teorileri bu süreçlerin doğasını anlama ve analiz etmeye yeterli değildir. Bu çalışmada iktisadi yazındaki bahsedilen bu önemli eksiliği giderebilmek için, duyguların, doğası gereği, beklenti oluşturma ve karar alma sürecinde, deneyimsel sürecin rasyonel sistem ile birlikte çalıştığı sonucuna ilgili literatürden yararlanılarak varılmıştır.

Supporting Institution

Yazarlar bu çalışma için finansal destek almadığını beyan etmiştir.

References

  • Alhakami, A. S., & Slovic, P. (1994). A Psychological Study of the Inverse Relationship Between Perceived Risk and Perceived Benefit. Risk Analysis, 14(6), 1085-1096.
  • Akay, A. Karabulut, G., & Martinsson, P. (2015). Cooperation and Punishment: The effect of Religisosity and Religious Festival . Economic Letters. c. 130.Arrow, Kenneth J. (1982). Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics. Economic Inquiry, 20, 1–9.
  • Bandelij, N., Kim, J., & Tufail, Z. (2017). Emotions in Economy. ed. Roger Frantz, Shu-Heng Chen, Kurt Dopfer. Routledge Handbook of Behavioral Economics. New York, NY. Routledge: 320-336.
  • Bargh, J. A. (1994). The four horsemen of automaticity: Awareness, intention, efficiency, and control in social cognition. Ed. R. Wyer, T. Srull. Handbook of Social Cognition. Lawrence Erlbaum.
  • Barrett, L. F., Tugade, M. M., & Engle, R. W. (2004). Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity and Dual-Process Theories of the Mind. Psychological Bulletin, 130(4), 553–573.
  • Bechara, A., Damasio, A. R. (2005). The somatic marker hypothesis: a neural theory of economic decision. Games and Economic Behaviour. 52(2), 336–372.
  • Clore, G. L., Huntsinger, J. R. (2007). How Emotions Inform Judgment and Regulate Thought. TRENDS in Cognitive Sciences, 11(9).
  • Damasio, A. R. (1994). Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain. Grosset/Putnam, New York.
  • Epstein, S. (1994). Integration of the Cognitive and the Psychodynamic Unconscious. American Psychologist, 49(8), 709-724
  • Finucane, M. L., Alhakami, A., Slovic, P., & Johnson, S. M. (2000). The Affect Heuristic in Judgments of Risks and Benefits. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 1-17.
  • Gasper, K., & Clore, G. L. (2002). Attending to the Big Picture: Mood and Global Versus Local Processing of Visual Information. Psychological Science, 13(1), 34-40.
  • Gawronski, B., & Creighton, L. A. (2013). Dual Process Theories. The Oxford Handbook of Social Cognition. New York, NY: Oxford University Press: 282-312.
  • James, W. (1890). The Principles of Psychology. 2 cilt. New York: Henry Holt.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
  • Kahneman, D. (2003). A Perspective on Judgment and Choice: Mapping Bounded Rationality. American Psychologist, 58(9), 697-720.
  • Kralik, J. D., Xu, E. R., Knight, E. J., Khan, S. A., & Levine, W. J. (2012). When Less Is More: Evolutionary Origins of the Affect Heuristic. PLoS ONE, 7(10), e46240.
  • Lacasse, K. (2015). Going with Your Gut: How William James' Theory of Emotions Brings Insights to Risk Perception and Decision Making Research. New Ideas in Psychology, 46, 1-7.
  • Le, H. Q., & Nguyen, T. M. (2018). Behaviors in the market for safe vegetables under information asymmetry: modelling approach. Eurasian Economic Review, 8(3), 381-392.
  • LeDoux, J. (1996). The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life. Simon and Schuster, New York.
  • Lempert, Karolina M., & Phelps, E. A. (2014). Neuroeconomics of Emotion and Decision Making. Neuroeconomics: Decision Making and the Brain Book. 2. bs. ed. Paul W. Glimcher, Ernst Fehr. Academic Press: 219-236.
  • Loewenstein. George F., Elke U. Weber, Christopher K. Hsee, Ned Welch. (2001). Risk as Feelings. Psychological Bulletin, 127(2), 267–286.
  • Loomes, G. (2008). Prospect Theory. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. c.1. 2. bs. Londra: Palgrave Macmillan
  • Machina, M. J. (2008). Expected Utility Hypothesis. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. c.1. 2. bs. Londra: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Moors, A., & Houwer, J. D. (2006). Automaticity: A Theoretical and Conceptual Analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 132(2), 297–326.
  • Mowrer, H. O. (1960). Learning Theory and Behavior. New York: Wiley.
  • Mulainathan, S., & Thaler, R. H. (2000). Behavioral Economics. Nber Working Paper Series. Working Paper: 7948.
  • Nagatsu, M. (2014). Behavioral Economics, History of. International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. 2. bs. Elsevier: 443–449.
  • Schmeidler, D., & Wakker, P. (1987). Expected Utility and Mathematical Expectation. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. c. 1. 1. bs. Londra: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Schwarz, N., & Clore, G. L. (1983). Mood, Misattribution, and Judgments of Well-being: Informative and Directive Functions of Affective States. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 513-523.
  • _______.(1988). How do I feel about it? Informative Functions of Affective States. Ed. K. Fiedler, J. Forgas. Affect, Cognition, and Social Behavior. Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Hogrefe International: 44-62.
  • _______.(1996). Feelings and Phenomenal Experiences. ed. ET Higgins, AW Kruglanski. Social Psychology: Handbook of Basic Principles. New York: Guilford Press: 433-465. _______.(2003). Mood as Information: 20 Years Later. Psychological Inquiry, 14, 296-303.
  • Schwarz, Norbert. (2010). Feelings-as-Information Theory. ed. P. Van Lange, A. Kruglanski, E. T. Higgins. Handbook of Theories of Social Psychology. Sage.
  • Schoemaker, P. J. (1982). The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations. Journal of Economic Literature. c. 20. s. 2: 529-563.
  • Sent, E. M. (2004). Behavioral Economics: How Psychology Made its (limited) Way back into Economics. History of Political Economy, 36, 735-760.
  • Simon, H. A. (1955). A behavioral model of rational choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69, 99-118.
  • Slovic, Paul, Melissa Finucane, Ellen Peters, Donald G. MacGregor. (2002). Rational Actors or Rational Fools: Implications of the Affect Heuristic for Behavioral Economics. Journal of Socio-Economics, 31, 329–342.
  • Stanovich, K., & West, R. (2002). Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate?. ed. T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, D. Kahneman. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press: 421-440.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1986). Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions. Journal of Business, 59, 251-278.

Cognitive and Experiential Processes in Economic Expectations and Decision-Making

Year 2021, Volume: 30 Issue: 1, 169 - 191, 31.03.2021

Abstract

In the process of forming expectations and decision-making, how brain processes internal and external information and experiences and the factors are affecting these processes are an important discussion. In this context, the relationship between an agent’s emotions and rational reasoning ability and that between expectation formation and decision-making process are important. In the mainstream economic literature, expectation and decision-making theories are formed by perspectives reliant on the cognitive aspects of these processes. However, such perspectives do not explain the relationship of emotions and affect with intuitive and experiential systems. In this respect, the relationship between the experiential system and the rational system must be analyzed. They are expressed in metaphors of mind and emotion in psychology, cognitive neuroscience, and behavioral economics literature, which should be included more intensively in economic methodology. The dual-process theories applied in the field of psychology work on the information processing and thinking systems of an individual. The distinction and interdependence between the rational reasoning of the brain and the experiential process of information processing, especially those of the dual-process theories, show that the framework of economic expectations and established theories of decisionmaking is insufficient to understand the process of forming those processes. To overcome this important deficiency in economic literature, it is concluded with the help of related literature that emotions affect the expectation and decision-making formation and that the experiential process in the brain works in a manner that works together collaboration with the rational system.

References

  • Alhakami, A. S., & Slovic, P. (1994). A Psychological Study of the Inverse Relationship Between Perceived Risk and Perceived Benefit. Risk Analysis, 14(6), 1085-1096.
  • Akay, A. Karabulut, G., & Martinsson, P. (2015). Cooperation and Punishment: The effect of Religisosity and Religious Festival . Economic Letters. c. 130.Arrow, Kenneth J. (1982). Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics. Economic Inquiry, 20, 1–9.
  • Bandelij, N., Kim, J., & Tufail, Z. (2017). Emotions in Economy. ed. Roger Frantz, Shu-Heng Chen, Kurt Dopfer. Routledge Handbook of Behavioral Economics. New York, NY. Routledge: 320-336.
  • Bargh, J. A. (1994). The four horsemen of automaticity: Awareness, intention, efficiency, and control in social cognition. Ed. R. Wyer, T. Srull. Handbook of Social Cognition. Lawrence Erlbaum.
  • Barrett, L. F., Tugade, M. M., & Engle, R. W. (2004). Individual Differences in Working Memory Capacity and Dual-Process Theories of the Mind. Psychological Bulletin, 130(4), 553–573.
  • Bechara, A., Damasio, A. R. (2005). The somatic marker hypothesis: a neural theory of economic decision. Games and Economic Behaviour. 52(2), 336–372.
  • Clore, G. L., Huntsinger, J. R. (2007). How Emotions Inform Judgment and Regulate Thought. TRENDS in Cognitive Sciences, 11(9).
  • Damasio, A. R. (1994). Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain. Grosset/Putnam, New York.
  • Epstein, S. (1994). Integration of the Cognitive and the Psychodynamic Unconscious. American Psychologist, 49(8), 709-724
  • Finucane, M. L., Alhakami, A., Slovic, P., & Johnson, S. M. (2000). The Affect Heuristic in Judgments of Risks and Benefits. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 1-17.
  • Gasper, K., & Clore, G. L. (2002). Attending to the Big Picture: Mood and Global Versus Local Processing of Visual Information. Psychological Science, 13(1), 34-40.
  • Gawronski, B., & Creighton, L. A. (2013). Dual Process Theories. The Oxford Handbook of Social Cognition. New York, NY: Oxford University Press: 282-312.
  • James, W. (1890). The Principles of Psychology. 2 cilt. New York: Henry Holt.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
  • Kahneman, D. (2003). A Perspective on Judgment and Choice: Mapping Bounded Rationality. American Psychologist, 58(9), 697-720.
  • Kralik, J. D., Xu, E. R., Knight, E. J., Khan, S. A., & Levine, W. J. (2012). When Less Is More: Evolutionary Origins of the Affect Heuristic. PLoS ONE, 7(10), e46240.
  • Lacasse, K. (2015). Going with Your Gut: How William James' Theory of Emotions Brings Insights to Risk Perception and Decision Making Research. New Ideas in Psychology, 46, 1-7.
  • Le, H. Q., & Nguyen, T. M. (2018). Behaviors in the market for safe vegetables under information asymmetry: modelling approach. Eurasian Economic Review, 8(3), 381-392.
  • LeDoux, J. (1996). The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life. Simon and Schuster, New York.
  • Lempert, Karolina M., & Phelps, E. A. (2014). Neuroeconomics of Emotion and Decision Making. Neuroeconomics: Decision Making and the Brain Book. 2. bs. ed. Paul W. Glimcher, Ernst Fehr. Academic Press: 219-236.
  • Loewenstein. George F., Elke U. Weber, Christopher K. Hsee, Ned Welch. (2001). Risk as Feelings. Psychological Bulletin, 127(2), 267–286.
  • Loomes, G. (2008). Prospect Theory. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. c.1. 2. bs. Londra: Palgrave Macmillan
  • Machina, M. J. (2008). Expected Utility Hypothesis. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. c.1. 2. bs. Londra: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Moors, A., & Houwer, J. D. (2006). Automaticity: A Theoretical and Conceptual Analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 132(2), 297–326.
  • Mowrer, H. O. (1960). Learning Theory and Behavior. New York: Wiley.
  • Mulainathan, S., & Thaler, R. H. (2000). Behavioral Economics. Nber Working Paper Series. Working Paper: 7948.
  • Nagatsu, M. (2014). Behavioral Economics, History of. International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. 2. bs. Elsevier: 443–449.
  • Schmeidler, D., & Wakker, P. (1987). Expected Utility and Mathematical Expectation. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. c. 1. 1. bs. Londra: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Schwarz, N., & Clore, G. L. (1983). Mood, Misattribution, and Judgments of Well-being: Informative and Directive Functions of Affective States. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 513-523.
  • _______.(1988). How do I feel about it? Informative Functions of Affective States. Ed. K. Fiedler, J. Forgas. Affect, Cognition, and Social Behavior. Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Hogrefe International: 44-62.
  • _______.(1996). Feelings and Phenomenal Experiences. ed. ET Higgins, AW Kruglanski. Social Psychology: Handbook of Basic Principles. New York: Guilford Press: 433-465. _______.(2003). Mood as Information: 20 Years Later. Psychological Inquiry, 14, 296-303.
  • Schwarz, Norbert. (2010). Feelings-as-Information Theory. ed. P. Van Lange, A. Kruglanski, E. T. Higgins. Handbook of Theories of Social Psychology. Sage.
  • Schoemaker, P. J. (1982). The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations. Journal of Economic Literature. c. 20. s. 2: 529-563.
  • Sent, E. M. (2004). Behavioral Economics: How Psychology Made its (limited) Way back into Economics. History of Political Economy, 36, 735-760.
  • Simon, H. A. (1955). A behavioral model of rational choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69, 99-118.
  • Slovic, Paul, Melissa Finucane, Ellen Peters, Donald G. MacGregor. (2002). Rational Actors or Rational Fools: Implications of the Affect Heuristic for Behavioral Economics. Journal of Socio-Economics, 31, 329–342.
  • Stanovich, K., & West, R. (2002). Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate?. ed. T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, D. Kahneman. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press: 421-440.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1986). Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions. Journal of Business, 59, 251-278.
There are 38 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Political Science
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Eren Yıldırım 0000-0002-3705-2424

Meral Uzunöz This is me 0000-0002-6626-7045

Publication Date March 31, 2021
Submission Date February 21, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 30 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Yıldırım, E., & Uzunöz, M. (2021). İktisadi Beklentiler ve Karar Almada Deneyimsel ve Bilişsel Süreçler. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, 30(1), 169-191.