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MUĞLA İLİ VE ÇEVRESİ İÇİN DEPREMSELLİK VE SİSMİK TEHLİKE ANALİZİ

Year 2017, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 507 - 524, 18.12.2017
https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.348890

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Batı Anadolu’nun güncel depremselliğine
bağlı olarak Muğla ili ve çevresinin depremselliğinin uzaysal dağılımı,
maksimum magnitüd “mmax” değeri ve yerel tasarım spektrumları
belirlenmiştir. Çalışmanın ilk aşamasında uluslararası veri merkezlerinden
(International Seismological Centre ve National Earthquake Inernatinal Centre)
elde edilen veriler kullanılarak homojen bir katalog oluşturulmuştur.
Depremselliğin ve “mmax” değerinin belirlenebilmesi ve
haritalanabilmesi için çalışma alanı 0.25°K x 0.25°D aralıklarla gridlenmiştir.
Her bir alt bölge için Gutenberg-Richter bağıntısındaki “b” değeri En Büyük
Olasılık ve Kal-Tek yöntemleri kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır. Ve bölge
için 0.8<b<0.84 aralığında değişim gösteren görece düşük “b”
değerleri elde edilmiştir.  “mmax” değeri ise her bir alt
bölgede Tate-Pisarenko, Kijko-Sellevoll (Cramer), Kijko-Sellevoll (Kesin),
Tate-Pisarenko-Bayes, Kijko-Sellevoll-Bayes yöntemleri kullanılarak
hesaplanmıştır. Yapılan hesaplamalar sonucunda bölgede oluşabilecek “mmax
değerinin 6.0≤Mw≤6.5 aralığında olduğu görülmüştür.  Düşük “b” değeri ve
yüksek “mmax” değeri çalışma alanında geçmişte olduğu gibi gelecekte
de yıkıcı depremler olabileceğini göstermektedir. Çalışmanın ikinci ve son
aşamasında ise öncelikle deprem üretmesi muhtemel faylar (Karaova-Milas Fayı,
Muğla-Yatağan Fayı ve Ula-Ören Fayı) ve bu faylara ait deprem parametreleri
belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen “mmax” değerine bağlı olarak yerel tepki
spektrumları EZ-FRISK 7.52 programı yardımıyla belirlenmiştir. Yapılan
hesaplamalar sonucunda 50 yılda aşılma olasılığı %10 olan depremler için
ivme değerleri sırası ile 0.40 g, 3.64 g ve 0.92 g olarak hesaplanmıştır.

References

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SEISMICITY AND SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR MUĞLA CITY AND ITS VICINITY

Year 2017, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 507 - 524, 18.12.2017
https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.348890

Abstract











In this study the spatial distribution of seismicity,
maximum magnitude value “mmax” and local design spectrums for the
Muğla city and its vicinity depend on the current seismicity of Western
Anatolia were determined.
The first part of this study, homogeneous a catalog has
been created using data from the international data bases (International
Seismological Centre and National Earthquake
International Centre).The study area was gridded at 0.25ºN x 0.25ºE for the
determination and mapping of seismicity and “mmax” value. The “b”
value in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship was
calculated at each, respectively sub-region using conventional methods of
Maximum Likelihood and Kal-Tek.
A relatively low value of “b” changing in the range
of 0.8<b<0.84 was obtained for the region.
For
each region, the values of “mmaxwere obtained by
Tate-Pisarenko, Kijko-Sellevoll (Cramer), Kijko-Sellevoll (Exact),
Tate-Pisarenko-Bayes, Kijko-Sellevoll-Bayes, methods.
As a result of calculations it was seen that the value of “mmax”, that could occur in the region is
between 6.0≤Mw≤6.5.
Low “b” values
and high “mmax” values
clearly show that
destructive earthquakes occurred in the past may likely occur in the future in
the study area.
In the second and last part of the study, firstly the possible
earthquake faults (Karaova-Milas Fault, Muğla-Yatağan Fault and Ula-Ören Fault)
and the earthquake parameters belonging to these faults were determined. Local design spectrums depending on obtained “mmax” values
was determined by EZ-FRISK 7.52 program
Acceleration values for the earthquake which is the 10% probability
exceedance in 50 years were calculated as
0.40 g, 3.4 g ve 0.92 g respectively.    

References

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  • Abrahamson, N.A. ve Silva, W.J., 2008. Summary of the Abrahamson and Silva Ground-Motion Relations Earthquake Spectra, 24, I, 67-97.
  • Aki, K., 1965. Maximum Likelihood Estimate of b in the formula logN=a-bM and its confidence limits. Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 43, 237-239.
  • Allen, C.R., Amanp, P., Richter, C.F., Nordquist, J.M., 1965. Relation Between Seismicity and Geological Structure in the S. California Region. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 55, 752-797.
  • Alptekin, Ö., 1978. Magnitude-Frequency Relationships and Deformation Release fort he Earthquakes in and around Turkey. Thesis for Prpmoting to Associate Professor Level, Karadeniz Technical University, 107s., Trabzon.
  • Ambraseys, N.N. ve Jackson, J.A., 1998. Faulting Associated with Historical and Recent Earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Geophysical Journal International, 133, 390-406.
  • Ambraseys, N.N., 1975. Trends in Engineering Seismology in European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Volume 3.
  • Ambraseys, N.N., Douglas, J., Sarma, S.K., Smith, P.M., 2005. Equations for the Estimation of Strong Ground Motions from Shallow Crustal Earthquakes Using Data from Europe and the Middler East: Horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration and Spectral Acceleration. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 3:1-53.
  • Ambraseys., N.N., Simpson, K.A., Bommer, J.J., 1996. Prediction of Horizontal Response in Europe. Earthquake Engineering and Structral Dynamics, 25, 371-400. Atkinson, G.M. ve Boore, D.M., 2003. Empirical Ground-Motion Relations for Subduction Zone Earthquakes and theri Application to Casadia and other Regions. Bulletin of the Geological Society of America, 93(4).
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  • Bayrak, Y., Bayrak, E., Atay, N., 2011. En Büyük Olasılık Yöntemi Kullanılarak Batı Anadolu’nun Farklı Bölgelerinde Aletsel Dönem İçin Deprem Tehlike Analizi. 1. Türkiye Deprem Mühendisliği ve Sismoloji Konferansı, 11-14 Ekim 2011, Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Ankara.
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  • Boore, D.M. ve Atkinson, G., 2008. Ground Motion Prediction Equations fort he Average Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, and 5%-damped PSA at Spectral Periods Between 0.01 s and 10.0 s, Earthquake Spectra, 24, 1, 99-138.
  • Boore, D.M., Joyner, W.B., Fumal, T.E., 1997. Equations for Estimating Horizontal Response Spectra and Peak Acceleration from Western North American Earthquakes. A Summary of Recent Work. Seismological Research Letters, 68(1), 128-153.
  • Burton, P. W., 1979. Seismic Risk In Southern Europe Through India Examined Gumbel’s Third Distribution of Extreme Values. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 59, 259-280.
  • Campbell, K. ve Bozorgnia, Y., 2008. NGA Ground Motion Model for the Geometric Mean Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, PGD and 5%damped Linear Elastic Response Spectra for Periods ranging from 0.01 s to 10 s, , Earthquake Spectra, 24, 1, 139-171.
  • Campbell, K. ve Bozorgnia, Y., 2008. NGA Ground Motion Model fort he Geometric Mean Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, PGD and 5%damped Linear Elastic Response Spectra for Periods ranging from 0.01 s to 10 s, , Earthquake Spectra, 24, 1, 139-171.
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There are 79 citations in total.

Details

Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Nazli Ceyla Anadolu Kılıç 0000-0002-8769-3510

Ümit Yalçin Kalyoncuoğlu 0000-0002-8745-5598

Publication Date December 18, 2017
Submission Date November 2, 2017
Acceptance Date November 21, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 5 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Anadolu Kılıç, N. C., & Kalyoncuoğlu, Ü. Y. (2017). MUĞLA İLİ VE ÇEVRESİ İÇİN DEPREMSELLİK VE SİSMİK TEHLİKE ANALİZİ. Mühendislik Bilimleri Ve Tasarım Dergisi, 5(3), 507-524. https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.348890