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AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ

Year 2022, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 1 - 14, 30.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1109287

Abstract

Mali sürdürülebilirlik, tüm dünyada olduğu gibi AB ülkeleri için de özellikle borç krizi sonrası dönemde önemli konular arasındadır. Özellikle 2008 küresel finansal kriz ve 2019 Covid pandemisi, dünyada hemen hemen tüm ülkeleri etkilediği gibi AB ülkelerini de ciddi şekilde etkilemiştir. Bu kapsamda maliye politikası araçları etkin şekilde kullanılmaktadır. Ülkeler arka arkaya kurtarma paketleri açıklamış ve bu paketler kamu maliyesi üzerinde ciddi yükler meydana getirmiştir. Buradan hareketle çalışmada 27 AB ülkesinin 2000-2020 döneminde mali sürdürülebilirliğinin araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan verilerin yayınlanma tarihindeki sınırlılık zaman kısıtını oluşturmaktadır. Bu kapsamda panel regresyon analiz yöntemi kullanılmış ve yapılan tahminlerin değişen varyans ve otokorelasyon sorununa karşı dirençli olmasına dikkat edilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda, kamu gelirleri ve kamu harcamaları arasındaki ilişkiden hareketle AB ülkelerinde zayıf mali sürdürülebilirliğin olduğu, birincil bütçe dengesi ile kamu borç stokunun GSYH içindeki payı arasındaki ilişkiden hareketle AB ülkelerinde mali sürdürülebilirliğin olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışma gerek kullanılan yöntem gerekse de örneklem ülke grubu açısından literatürde yer alan çalışmalardan farklılaşmaktadır.

References

  • Adams, C., Ferrarini, B. ve Park, D. (2010). “Fiscal sustainability in developing Asia”. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 205. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28414/economics-wp205.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 01.02.2022).
  • Afonso, A. ve Jalles, J. T. (2015). “Fiscal sustainability: a panel assessment for advanced economies”. Applied Economics Letters, 22(11), 925-929.
  • Afonso, A. ve Rault, C. (2008). “Fiscal sustainability in the EU: a panel data diagnostic”. 49-68. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1996486 (Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2022).
  • Al, İ. (2019). “Mali sürdürülebilirlik analizi: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama”. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 7(2), 67-84.
  • Alvarado, C. D., Izquierdo, A. ve Panizza, U. (2004). “Fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries with an application to Ecuador”. Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department, Washington, DC. Working Paper, No. 511. https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Fiscal-Sustainability-in-Emerging-Market- Countries-with-an-Application-to-Ecuador.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2022).
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Soon, S. V. ve Lau, E. (2017). “Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy:When does public debt turn bad?”. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2017), 99–113.
  • Balassone, F. ve Franco, D. (2000). “Assessing fiscal sustainability: a review of methodes with a view to EMU”. Fiscal Sustainability Conference, 20 Ocak, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2109377 (Erişim Tarihi: 23.01.2022).
  • Baltagi, B. H. ve Wu, P. X. (1999). “Unequally spaced panel data regressions with ar(1) disturbances”. Econometric Theory, 15, 814–823.
  • Beck, N. ve Katz, J. N. (1995). “What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data”. The American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634-647.
  • Benz, U. ve Fetzer, S. (2004). “Indicators for measuring fiscal sustainability a comparative application of the OECD-method and generational accounting”. Institut Für Finanzwissenschaft Der Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg Im Breisgau Discussion Papers, 118/04.
  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. ve Narendranathan, W. (1982). “Serial correlation and the fixed effects model”. Review of Economic Studies, 49, 533-549.
  • Blanchard, O. J., Chouraqui J.C. ve Hagemann R. P. (1990). “The sustainability of fiscal policy: new answers to an old question”. OECD Economic Studies No: 15, https://www.oecd.org/economy/outlook/34288870.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 11.01.2022).
  • Breusch, P. ve Pagan, A. R. (1980). “The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics”. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Buiter, W. H., Persson, T. ve Minford, P. (1985). “A guide to public sector debt and deficits”. Economic Policy, 1(1), 13-79.
  • Burnside, C. (2005). “Theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis”. C. Burnside (Ed.). Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice: a handbook (11-34), Washington DC.: World Bank Publication. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/7495/396480PAPER0Fi101OFFICIAL0USE0ONLY1.pdf?sequence=1veisAllowed=y
  • Ceylan, R. (2010). “Türkiye’de mali sürdürülebilirlik göstergeleri istikrarlı mı?”. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 388-397.
  • Çınar, S. ve Özçalık, M. (2014). “Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde mali sürdürülebilirlik: panel veri analizi”. Journal of Yasar University, 9(33), 5597-5622.
  • Domar, E. D. (1944). “The "burden of the debt" and the national income”. The American Economic Review, 34(4), 798-827.
  • European Commission. (2012). Fiscal sustainability report. 8/2012. doi: 10.2765/19669
  • Eurostat Database. (2021). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2021).
  • Fincke, B. (2015). “Fiscal sustainability: does eu membership change policy behavior? Empirical evidence from central and eastern europe”. Bielefeld University Faculty of Business Administration and Economics Working Papers in Economics and Management, No. 03-2015. https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/download/2915557/2915560/wpaper_03-2015.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2022).
  • Friedman, M. (1978). T”he limitations of tax limitations”. Policy Review, 7-14.
  • Göktan, A. (2008). “Türkiye’de mali sürdürülebilirlik üzerine ampirik bir çalışma”. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 15(2), 425-445.
  • Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Gujarati, D. N. ve Porter, D. C. (2012). Temel ekonometri. (Çev. Ü. Şenesen, G.G. Şenesen). İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
  • Hakkio, C. S. ve Rush, M. (1991). “Is the budget deficit “too large?””. Western Economic Association International Economic Inquiry, 29, 429-445.
  • Hamilton, J. D. ve Flavin, M. A. (1986). “On the limitations of government borrowing: a framework for empirical testing”. The American Economic Review, 76(4), 808-819.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification tests in econometrics”. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • Herrera, M. C. R. ve Prats, M. A. (2020). “Fiscal sustainability in the european countries: a panel ardl approach and a dynamic panel threshold model”. Sustainability, 12, 1-14.
  • Herrera, M. C. R. ve Rivero, S. S. (2020). “Fiscal sustainability in aging societies: evidence from euro area countries”. Sustainability, 12, 1-20.
  • Izquierdo, A. ve Panizza, U. (2003). “Fiscal sustainability: issues for emerging market countries”. Egyptian Economic Research Center Working Paper, No: 91. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/88089/1/idb-wp_511.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2022).
  • İlgün, M. F. (2016). “Mali sürdürülebilirlik: OECD ülkelerine yönelik panel veri analizi”. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 30(1), 69-90.
  • İnal, V. (2020). Türkiye’de mali sürdürülebilirlik. Ankara: İksad Publications.
  • Kremers, J. J. M. (1989). “U.S. federal ındebtedness and the conduct of fiscal policy”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(1989), 219-238.
  • Magazzino, C., Brady, G. L. ve Forte, F. (2019). “A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries”. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 20(2019), 1-9.
  • Mercan, M. (2014). “Budget deficits sustainable? An empirical analysis for OECD countries”. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 131(2014), 258-263.
  • Musgrave, R. (1966). “Principles of budget determination”. H. Cameron, W. Henderson (Ed.). Public finance: selected readings (15-27). New York: Random House.
  • Özmen, İ. ve Balı, S. (2018). “Bazı gelişmiş ülkelerde kamu harcamaları ve vergi gelirleri üzerinden mali sürdürülebilirlik sınaması: yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi”. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(12), 108-117.
  • Peacock, A. ve Wiseman, J. (1979). “Approaches to the analysis of government expenditures growth”. Public Finance Quarterly, 7, 3-23.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). “A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
  • Polat, G. E. ve Polat, O. (2021). “Fiscal sustainability analysis in EU countries: a dynamic macro-panel approach”. Eastern Journal Of European Studies, 12(1), 219-241.
  • Prohl, S. ve Westerlund, J. (2009). “Using panel data to test for fiscal sustainability within the European Union”. FinanzArchiv / Public Finance Analysis, 65(2), 246-269.
  • Şen, H., Sağbaş, İ. ve Keskin, A. (2010). “Türkiye’de mali sürdürülebilirliğin analizi: 1975-2007”. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 103-123.
  • Trehan, B. ve Walsh, C. E. (1988). “Common trends, the government’s budget constraint, and revenue smoothing”. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(1988), 425-444.
  • Ün, T. (2015), “Stata ile Panel Veri Analizi”. S. Güriş, (Ed.). Stata ile Panel Veri Modelleri (40-80). İstanbul: Der Yayınları.
  • Wildavsky, A. (1988). The new politics of the budgetary process. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2016). Panel veri ekonometrisi. İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık.
  • Yıldız, H. ve Yıldırım, D. Ç. (2014). “An empirical study on fiscal sustainability in eurozone”. Serbian Journal of Management, 9(1), 59-70.

THE EFFECT OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ON TAX REVENUES: THE EXAMPLE OF G7 COUNTRIES

Year 2022, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 1 - 14, 30.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1109287

Abstract

Fiscal sustainability is among the important issues for EU countries, especially in the post-debt crisis period, as it is all over the world. In particular, the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2019 Covid pandemic have seriously affected EU countries as well as almost all countries in the world. In this context, fiscal policy tools are used effectively. Countries have announced bailout packages one after another, and these packages have created serious burdens on public finances. From this point of view, it is aimed to investigate the financial sustainability of 27 EU countries in the 2000-2020 period. The limitation in the date of publication of the data used in the study constitutes the time constraint. In this context, the panel regression analysis method was used and care was taken to ensure that the estimations made were robust to the heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation problem. As a result of the analyzes, it was concluded that there is weak fiscal sustainability in EU countries based on the relationship between public revenues and public expenditures, and there is no fiscal sustainability in EU countries based on the relationship between the primary budget balance and the share of public debt stock in GDP. The study differs from the studies in the literature in terms of both the method used and the sample country group.

References

  • Adams, C., Ferrarini, B. ve Park, D. (2010). “Fiscal sustainability in developing Asia”. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 205. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28414/economics-wp205.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 01.02.2022).
  • Afonso, A. ve Jalles, J. T. (2015). “Fiscal sustainability: a panel assessment for advanced economies”. Applied Economics Letters, 22(11), 925-929.
  • Afonso, A. ve Rault, C. (2008). “Fiscal sustainability in the EU: a panel data diagnostic”. 49-68. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1996486 (Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2022).
  • Al, İ. (2019). “Mali sürdürülebilirlik analizi: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama”. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 7(2), 67-84.
  • Alvarado, C. D., Izquierdo, A. ve Panizza, U. (2004). “Fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries with an application to Ecuador”. Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department, Washington, DC. Working Paper, No. 511. https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Fiscal-Sustainability-in-Emerging-Market- Countries-with-an-Application-to-Ecuador.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2022).
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Soon, S. V. ve Lau, E. (2017). “Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy:When does public debt turn bad?”. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2017), 99–113.
  • Balassone, F. ve Franco, D. (2000). “Assessing fiscal sustainability: a review of methodes with a view to EMU”. Fiscal Sustainability Conference, 20 Ocak, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2109377 (Erişim Tarihi: 23.01.2022).
  • Baltagi, B. H. ve Wu, P. X. (1999). “Unequally spaced panel data regressions with ar(1) disturbances”. Econometric Theory, 15, 814–823.
  • Beck, N. ve Katz, J. N. (1995). “What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data”. The American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634-647.
  • Benz, U. ve Fetzer, S. (2004). “Indicators for measuring fiscal sustainability a comparative application of the OECD-method and generational accounting”. Institut Für Finanzwissenschaft Der Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg Im Breisgau Discussion Papers, 118/04.
  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. ve Narendranathan, W. (1982). “Serial correlation and the fixed effects model”. Review of Economic Studies, 49, 533-549.
  • Blanchard, O. J., Chouraqui J.C. ve Hagemann R. P. (1990). “The sustainability of fiscal policy: new answers to an old question”. OECD Economic Studies No: 15, https://www.oecd.org/economy/outlook/34288870.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 11.01.2022).
  • Breusch, P. ve Pagan, A. R. (1980). “The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics”. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Buiter, W. H., Persson, T. ve Minford, P. (1985). “A guide to public sector debt and deficits”. Economic Policy, 1(1), 13-79.
  • Burnside, C. (2005). “Theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis”. C. Burnside (Ed.). Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice: a handbook (11-34), Washington DC.: World Bank Publication. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/7495/396480PAPER0Fi101OFFICIAL0USE0ONLY1.pdf?sequence=1veisAllowed=y
  • Ceylan, R. (2010). “Türkiye’de mali sürdürülebilirlik göstergeleri istikrarlı mı?”. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 388-397.
  • Çınar, S. ve Özçalık, M. (2014). “Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde mali sürdürülebilirlik: panel veri analizi”. Journal of Yasar University, 9(33), 5597-5622.
  • Domar, E. D. (1944). “The "burden of the debt" and the national income”. The American Economic Review, 34(4), 798-827.
  • European Commission. (2012). Fiscal sustainability report. 8/2012. doi: 10.2765/19669
  • Eurostat Database. (2021). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2021).
  • Fincke, B. (2015). “Fiscal sustainability: does eu membership change policy behavior? Empirical evidence from central and eastern europe”. Bielefeld University Faculty of Business Administration and Economics Working Papers in Economics and Management, No. 03-2015. https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/download/2915557/2915560/wpaper_03-2015.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2022).
  • Friedman, M. (1978). T”he limitations of tax limitations”. Policy Review, 7-14.
  • Göktan, A. (2008). “Türkiye’de mali sürdürülebilirlik üzerine ampirik bir çalışma”. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 15(2), 425-445.
  • Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Gujarati, D. N. ve Porter, D. C. (2012). Temel ekonometri. (Çev. Ü. Şenesen, G.G. Şenesen). İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
  • Hakkio, C. S. ve Rush, M. (1991). “Is the budget deficit “too large?””. Western Economic Association International Economic Inquiry, 29, 429-445.
  • Hamilton, J. D. ve Flavin, M. A. (1986). “On the limitations of government borrowing: a framework for empirical testing”. The American Economic Review, 76(4), 808-819.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification tests in econometrics”. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • Herrera, M. C. R. ve Prats, M. A. (2020). “Fiscal sustainability in the european countries: a panel ardl approach and a dynamic panel threshold model”. Sustainability, 12, 1-14.
  • Herrera, M. C. R. ve Rivero, S. S. (2020). “Fiscal sustainability in aging societies: evidence from euro area countries”. Sustainability, 12, 1-20.
  • Izquierdo, A. ve Panizza, U. (2003). “Fiscal sustainability: issues for emerging market countries”. Egyptian Economic Research Center Working Paper, No: 91. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/88089/1/idb-wp_511.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2022).
  • İlgün, M. F. (2016). “Mali sürdürülebilirlik: OECD ülkelerine yönelik panel veri analizi”. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 30(1), 69-90.
  • İnal, V. (2020). Türkiye’de mali sürdürülebilirlik. Ankara: İksad Publications.
  • Kremers, J. J. M. (1989). “U.S. federal ındebtedness and the conduct of fiscal policy”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 23(1989), 219-238.
  • Magazzino, C., Brady, G. L. ve Forte, F. (2019). “A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries”. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 20(2019), 1-9.
  • Mercan, M. (2014). “Budget deficits sustainable? An empirical analysis for OECD countries”. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 131(2014), 258-263.
  • Musgrave, R. (1966). “Principles of budget determination”. H. Cameron, W. Henderson (Ed.). Public finance: selected readings (15-27). New York: Random House.
  • Özmen, İ. ve Balı, S. (2018). “Bazı gelişmiş ülkelerde kamu harcamaları ve vergi gelirleri üzerinden mali sürdürülebilirlik sınaması: yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi”. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(12), 108-117.
  • Peacock, A. ve Wiseman, J. (1979). “Approaches to the analysis of government expenditures growth”. Public Finance Quarterly, 7, 3-23.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). “A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
  • Polat, G. E. ve Polat, O. (2021). “Fiscal sustainability analysis in EU countries: a dynamic macro-panel approach”. Eastern Journal Of European Studies, 12(1), 219-241.
  • Prohl, S. ve Westerlund, J. (2009). “Using panel data to test for fiscal sustainability within the European Union”. FinanzArchiv / Public Finance Analysis, 65(2), 246-269.
  • Şen, H., Sağbaş, İ. ve Keskin, A. (2010). “Türkiye’de mali sürdürülebilirliğin analizi: 1975-2007”. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 103-123.
  • Trehan, B. ve Walsh, C. E. (1988). “Common trends, the government’s budget constraint, and revenue smoothing”. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(1988), 425-444.
  • Ün, T. (2015), “Stata ile Panel Veri Analizi”. S. Güriş, (Ed.). Stata ile Panel Veri Modelleri (40-80). İstanbul: Der Yayınları.
  • Wildavsky, A. (1988). The new politics of the budgetary process. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2016). Panel veri ekonometrisi. İstanbul: Beta Yayıncılık.
  • Yıldız, H. ve Yıldırım, D. Ç. (2014). “An empirical study on fiscal sustainability in eurozone”. Serbian Journal of Management, 9(1), 59-70.
There are 48 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Göksel Karaş 0000-0003-4091-1258

Publication Date June 30, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 5 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Karaş, G. (2022). AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, 5(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1109287
AMA Karaş G. AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. June 2022;5(1):1-14. doi:10.46737/emid.1109287
Chicago Karaş, Göksel. “AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 5, no. 1 (June 2022): 1-14. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1109287.
EndNote Karaş G (June 1, 2022) AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 5 1 1–14.
IEEE G. Karaş, “AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ”, Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 1–14, 2022, doi: 10.46737/emid.1109287.
ISNAD Karaş, Göksel. “AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 5/1 (June 2022), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1109287.
JAMA Karaş G. AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2022;5:1–14.
MLA Karaş, Göksel. “AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, vol. 5, no. 1, 2022, pp. 1-14, doi:10.46737/emid.1109287.
Vancouver Karaş G. AB ÜLKELERİNDE MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİK: PANEL REGRESYON ANALİZİ. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2022;5(1):1-14.