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2000-2020 Yılları Arasında Türkiye’deki Sermaye Kaçışları ile Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Faktörler Arasındaki İlişki

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 111 - 128, 31.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1062278

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 2000-2020 yılları arasında Türkiye’de yaşanan sermaye kaçışları ile seçilmiş makroekonomik faktörler arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmek amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada, Dünya Bankası yöntemine göre hesaplanan sermaye kaçışları ve dolar kuru, doğrudan yatırımlar, cari açık/fazla, dış borç stoku ve enflasyondan oluşan makroekonomik faktörler kullanılmıştır. Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Birim Kök Testi, VAR Analizi, Johansen-Juselius Eşbütünleşme Testi, Granger Nedensellik Testi ve Varyans Ayrıştırması ile analizler yapılmıştır. Analizler sonucunda doğrudan yatırımlar ve enflasyonun sermaye kaçışları üzerinde, sermaye kaçışlarının da doğrudan yatırımlar, dolar kuru ve enflasyon üzerinde bir etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

References

  • ALAM, M. I., & QUAZI, R. M. (2003) Determinants Of Capital Flight: An Econometric Case Study Of Bangladesh. International Review Of Applied Economics, 17(1), 85-103.
  • BAL, H., ALGAN, N., & ULAŞTIRICI, G. L. (2016). Sermaye Kaçışı Ve Geçiş Ekonomileri. International Conference On Eurasian Economies, 605-613.
  • BOYCE, J. K. (1992). The Revolving Door? External Debt And Capital Flight: A Philippine Case Study. World Development, 20(3), 335-349.
  • CUDDINGTON, J. T. (1986). Capital Flight: Estimates, İssues, And Explanations. Princeton, Nj: International Finance Section, Department Of Economics, 58.
  • DEMİR, F. (2004). A Failure Story: Politics And Financial Liberalization İn Turkey, Revisiting The Revolving Door Hypothesis. World Development, 32(5), 851–869.
  • DICKEY, D. A., & FULLER, W. A. (1981).“Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,1057-1072.
  • EGGERSTEDT, H., REBECCA B. H., & SWEDER V.W. (1993). Measuring Capital Flight: A Case Study Of Mexico. Policy Research Workıng Papers Country Operations, 1-45.
  • GEDA, A., & YIMER, A. (2016). Capital Flight And İts Determinants: The Case Of Ethiopia. African Development Review, 28(S1), 39–49.
  • GIBSON, H. D., & TSAKALOTOS, E. (1993). Testıng A Flow Model Of Capıtal Flıght In Fıve European Countrıes. The Manchester School, Lxı (2), 144-166.
  • GRANGER, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424.
  • GUNTER, F. R. (2004). Capital Flight From China: 1984–2001. China Economic Review, 15(1), 63–85.
  • HARRIGAN, J., MAVROTAS, G., & YUSOP, Z. (2002). On The Determinants Of Capital Flight: A New Approach. Journal Of The Asia Pacific Economy, 7(2), 203-241.
  • HERMES, N., ROBERT LENSINK, R., & MURINDE, V. (2002). Flight Capital And İts Reversal For Development Financing. Unu World Institute For Development Economics Research, 1-24.
  • ISTIKOMAH, N., SUHENDRA, I., & ANWAR, C. (2020). On Capital Flight From The Asean-8 Countries: A Panel Data Estimation. Journal Of Asıan Fınance Economıcs And Busıness. 7(12), 43-52.
  • KANT, C. (2002). What İs Capital Flight? The World Economy, 25(3), 341–358.
  • KOYUNCU, C., & İŞCAN, İ. (2018). Does Unionization Rate Accelerate Flight Of Capital ? : Panel Analysis. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 18(3), 13-22
  • LENSINK, R., HERMES, N., & MURINDE, V. (2000). Capital Flight And Political Risk. Journal Of İnternational Money And Finance, 19(1), 73-92.
  • MUNHOZ, V., & LIBÂNIO, G. (2009). Volatılıdade Dos Fluxos Fınanceıros E Fuga De Capıtaıs: Uma Análıse Exploratórıa Da Vulnerabılıdade Externa No Brasıl.
  • ONODUGO, V. A., KALU, I. E., ANOWOR, O. F., & UKWENI, N. O. (2014) Is Capital Flight Healthy For Nigerian Economic Growth? An Econometric Investigation. Journal Of Empirical Economics, 3(1), 10-24.
  • ÖZER, A., CANSIN DOKEY, A., & TÜRKMEN, A. (2013). Analysis Of Capital Flight İn Developing Countries: A Study On Turkey Between 1980 And 2010. Internatıonal Conference On Eurasıan Economıes, 172-180.
  • ÖZTÜRK, N, & ARTAN, S. (2015). Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Sermaye Kaçışlarının Ekonomik ve Kurumsal Belirleyicileri. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (16), 171-196.
  • ÖZTÜRK, N. (2015). Sermaye Kaçışlarının Ölçümünde Kavramsal ve Metodolojik Çerçeve. Global Journal Of Economics And Business Studies, 4 (7), 1-27.
  • SCHNEIDER, B. (2001). Measurıng Capıtal Flight: Estımates And Interpretatıons. Overseas Development Institute, 1-141.
  • TAYLOR, D., & SARPONG, B. (2020). The Impact Of Covıd-19 Induced Capıtal Flıght On The Bond And Foreıgn Exchange Markets In Ghana. International Journal Of Developing And Emerging Economies, 8(2), 1-14.
  • TCMB, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, “Dış borç stoku verileri” https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/12.04.2021.
  • OECD, The Organısatıon For Economıc Co-Operatıon And Development, “CPI” https://www.oecd.org/12.04.2021.

The Relationship between Capital Flows and Selected Macroeconomic Factors in Turkey between 2000-2020

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 111 - 128, 31.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1062278

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to determine the relationship between capital flight and selected macroeconomic factors in Turkey between the years 2000-2020. In the study, macroeconomic factors consisting of capital flight and dollar exchange rate, direct investments, current account deficit/surplus, external debt stock and inflation calculated according to the World Bank method were used. Analyzes were made with the Extended Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test, VAR Analysis, Johansen-Juselius Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test and Variance Decomposition. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that direct investments and inflation have an effect on capital flight, and capital flight has an effect on direct investments, dollar exchange rate and inflation.

References

  • ALAM, M. I., & QUAZI, R. M. (2003) Determinants Of Capital Flight: An Econometric Case Study Of Bangladesh. International Review Of Applied Economics, 17(1), 85-103.
  • BAL, H., ALGAN, N., & ULAŞTIRICI, G. L. (2016). Sermaye Kaçışı Ve Geçiş Ekonomileri. International Conference On Eurasian Economies, 605-613.
  • BOYCE, J. K. (1992). The Revolving Door? External Debt And Capital Flight: A Philippine Case Study. World Development, 20(3), 335-349.
  • CUDDINGTON, J. T. (1986). Capital Flight: Estimates, İssues, And Explanations. Princeton, Nj: International Finance Section, Department Of Economics, 58.
  • DEMİR, F. (2004). A Failure Story: Politics And Financial Liberalization İn Turkey, Revisiting The Revolving Door Hypothesis. World Development, 32(5), 851–869.
  • DICKEY, D. A., & FULLER, W. A. (1981).“Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,1057-1072.
  • EGGERSTEDT, H., REBECCA B. H., & SWEDER V.W. (1993). Measuring Capital Flight: A Case Study Of Mexico. Policy Research Workıng Papers Country Operations, 1-45.
  • GEDA, A., & YIMER, A. (2016). Capital Flight And İts Determinants: The Case Of Ethiopia. African Development Review, 28(S1), 39–49.
  • GIBSON, H. D., & TSAKALOTOS, E. (1993). Testıng A Flow Model Of Capıtal Flıght In Fıve European Countrıes. The Manchester School, Lxı (2), 144-166.
  • GRANGER, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424.
  • GUNTER, F. R. (2004). Capital Flight From China: 1984–2001. China Economic Review, 15(1), 63–85.
  • HARRIGAN, J., MAVROTAS, G., & YUSOP, Z. (2002). On The Determinants Of Capital Flight: A New Approach. Journal Of The Asia Pacific Economy, 7(2), 203-241.
  • HERMES, N., ROBERT LENSINK, R., & MURINDE, V. (2002). Flight Capital And İts Reversal For Development Financing. Unu World Institute For Development Economics Research, 1-24.
  • ISTIKOMAH, N., SUHENDRA, I., & ANWAR, C. (2020). On Capital Flight From The Asean-8 Countries: A Panel Data Estimation. Journal Of Asıan Fınance Economıcs And Busıness. 7(12), 43-52.
  • KANT, C. (2002). What İs Capital Flight? The World Economy, 25(3), 341–358.
  • KOYUNCU, C., & İŞCAN, İ. (2018). Does Unionization Rate Accelerate Flight Of Capital ? : Panel Analysis. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 18(3), 13-22
  • LENSINK, R., HERMES, N., & MURINDE, V. (2000). Capital Flight And Political Risk. Journal Of İnternational Money And Finance, 19(1), 73-92.
  • MUNHOZ, V., & LIBÂNIO, G. (2009). Volatılıdade Dos Fluxos Fınanceıros E Fuga De Capıtaıs: Uma Análıse Exploratórıa Da Vulnerabılıdade Externa No Brasıl.
  • ONODUGO, V. A., KALU, I. E., ANOWOR, O. F., & UKWENI, N. O. (2014) Is Capital Flight Healthy For Nigerian Economic Growth? An Econometric Investigation. Journal Of Empirical Economics, 3(1), 10-24.
  • ÖZER, A., CANSIN DOKEY, A., & TÜRKMEN, A. (2013). Analysis Of Capital Flight İn Developing Countries: A Study On Turkey Between 1980 And 2010. Internatıonal Conference On Eurasıan Economıes, 172-180.
  • ÖZTÜRK, N, & ARTAN, S. (2015). Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Sermaye Kaçışlarının Ekonomik ve Kurumsal Belirleyicileri. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (16), 171-196.
  • ÖZTÜRK, N. (2015). Sermaye Kaçışlarının Ölçümünde Kavramsal ve Metodolojik Çerçeve. Global Journal Of Economics And Business Studies, 4 (7), 1-27.
  • SCHNEIDER, B. (2001). Measurıng Capıtal Flight: Estımates And Interpretatıons. Overseas Development Institute, 1-141.
  • TAYLOR, D., & SARPONG, B. (2020). The Impact Of Covıd-19 Induced Capıtal Flıght On The Bond And Foreıgn Exchange Markets In Ghana. International Journal Of Developing And Emerging Economies, 8(2), 1-14.
  • TCMB, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, “Dış borç stoku verileri” https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/12.04.2021.
  • OECD, The Organısatıon For Economıc Co-Operatıon And Development, “CPI” https://www.oecd.org/12.04.2021.
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Zehra Tanyeli Aksoy 0000-0001-8874-8176

Ali Özer 0000-0003-4736-3418

Publication Date January 31, 2023
Acceptance Date December 5, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 7 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Aksoy, Z. T., & Özer, A. (2023). 2000-2020 Yılları Arasında Türkiye’deki Sermaye Kaçışları ile Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Faktörler Arasındaki İlişki. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 7(1), 111-128. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1062278