Abstract
Recognizing hydro-meteorological trends and monitoring drought are crucial for evaluating climate change and variability at basin and regional levels. In this Study,The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to assess drought in the Murat River Basin, analyzing monthly data from seventeen stations over various time periods. Wallis and Moore's test was used to analyze the homogeneity of the obtained monthly data from 17 rainfall stations and 18 temperature stations ,while Mann-Kendal tests were used to assess trends. The study analyzing data from 17 meteorological stations in the Murat River Basin found a lack of rainfall and severe droughts in 2014 and 2018. The Mann-Kendall test showed a decreasing trend in monthly precipitation data from 17 stations. Temperature data from 18 stations showed a rising trend, except for station 4025, with most showing a rise. The study suggests that rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation will lead to a decline in water supply in the future, affecting socioeconomic life by reducing water resources and soil moisture.
Keywords
Climate Change Trend Analysis Drought Analysis Murat River Basin Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)
References
- C. Sagan, W. R. Thompson, R. Carlson, D. Gurnett, and C. Hord, "A search for life on Earth from the Galileo spacecraft," Nature, vol. 365, no. 6448, pp. 715-721, 1993.
- J. R. Westmacott and D. H. J. J. o. H. Burn, "Climate change effects on the hydrologic regime within the Churchill-Nelson River Basin," vol. 202, no. 1-4, pp. 263-279, 1997.
- J. Peñuelas and M. J. T. i. p. s. Staudt, "BVOCs and global change," vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 133-144, 2010.
- M. White, A. Smith, K. Humphryes, S. Pahl, D. Snelling, and M. Depledge, "Blue space: The importance of water for preference, affect, and restorativeness ratings of natural and built scenes," Journal of Environmental Psychology, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 482-493, 2010, doi: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2010.04.004.
- J. J. R. o. p. i. p. Houghton, "Global warming," vol. 68, no. 6, p. 1343, 2005.
- D. A. Wilhite and M. H. Glantz, "Understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions," Water international, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 111-120, 1985.
- H. Aksoy et al., "SPI-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis," in 13th International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering, Izmir/Turkey, 2018.
- L. Kurnaz, "Drought in Turkey," İstanbul Policy Center, Sabancı Üniversitesi-İstanbul, 2014.
- V. Gumus, Y. Avsaroglu, and O. Simsek, "Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann− Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods," Journal of Earth System Science, vol. 131, no. 1, p. 34, 2022.
- M. I. Yuce and M. Esit, "Drought monitoring in Ceyhan basin, Turkey," Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 293-314, 2021.
- M. İ. YÜCE et al., "SPI ve SPEI ile Samsun İli Kuraklık Analizi," Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 285-295, 2022.
- R. Yadav, S. Tripathi, G. Pranuthi, and S. Dubey, "Trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test for precipitation and temperature for thirteen districts of Uttarakhand," Journal of Agrometeorology, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 164-171, 2014.
- M. Ç. Karabörk, E. Kahya, and A. Ü. J. H. P. A. I. J. Kömüşçü, "Analysis of Turkish precipitation data: homogeneity and the Southern Oscillation forcings on frequency distributions," vol. 21, no. 23, pp. 3203-3210, 2007.
- M. Firat, F. Dikbas, A. C. Koç, and M. J. S. Gungor, "Missing data analysis and homogeneity test for Turkish precipitation series," vol. 35, pp. 707-720, 2010.
- W. A. Wallis and G. H. J. J. o. t. A. S. A. Moore, "A significance test for time series analysis," vol. 36, no. 215, pp. 401-409, 1941.
- P. E. McKight and J. J. T. c. e. o. p. Najab, "Kruskal‐wallis test," pp. 1-1, 2010.
- M. G. Kendall, "Rank correlation methods," 1948.
- F. Wang et al., "Re-evaluation of the power of the mann-kendall test for detecting monotonic trends in hydrometeorological time series," vol. 8, p. 14, 2020.
- T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, "The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales," in Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 1993, vol. 17, no. 22: Boston, pp. 179-183.
- H. Wu, M. J. Hayes, A. Weiss, and Q. J. I. J. o. C. A. J. o. t. R. M. S. Hu, "An evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index, the China‐Z Index and the statistical Z‐Score," vol. 21, no. 6, pp. 745-758, 2001.
- D. Halwatura, A. Lechner, and S. Arnold, "Drought severity–duration–frequency curves: a foundation for risk assessment and planning tool for ecosystem establishment in post-mining landscapes," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 1069-1091, 2015.
- M. I. Yuce, M. J. J. o. A. W. E. Esit, and Research, "Drought monitoring in Ceyhan basin, Turkey," vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 293-314, 2021.
- M. I. Yuce, M. Esit, V. J. J. o. A. W. E. Kalaycioglu, and Research, "Investigation of trends in extreme events: a case study of Ceyhan Basin, Turkey," pp. 1-16, 2022.
- M. Pala and M. İ. J. A. E. J. Yüce, "Comparative Rainfall-Runoff analysis of the Upper Murat River Basin in Turkey in context of Hydro-Meteorological variables," vol. 75, pp. 479-493, 2023.
- K. Yenigün, V. Gümüş, and H. Bulut, "Trends in streamflow of the Euphrates basin, Turkey," in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Water Management, 2008, vol. 161, no. 4: Thomas Telford Ltd, pp. 189-198.
- H. GÜNEK, "MURAT NEHRİ HAVZASININ (FIRAT) SU POTANSİYELİ VE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ," Doğu Coğrafya Dergisi, vol. 11, no. 16, pp. 141-163, 2011.
- W. H. Fattah and Y. J. I. J. o. A. IMi, "Hydrological analysis of Murat river basin," vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 47-55, 2015.
- A. Koçyiğit, A. Yilmaz, S. Adamia, and S. Kuloshvili, "Neotectonics of East Anatolian Plateau (Turkey) and Lesser Caucasus: implication for transition from thrusting to strike-slip faulting," Geodinamica Acta, vol. 14, no. 1-3, pp. 177-195, 2001/01/01 2001, doi: 10.1080/09853111.2001.11432443.
- N. Avşin, M. K. Erturaç, E. Şahiner, and T. J. Q. Demir, "The Quaternary Climatic and Tectonic Development of the Murat River Valley (Muş Basin, Eastern Turkey) as Recorded by Fluvial Deposits Dated by Optically Stimulated Luminescence," vol. 4, no. 3, p. 29, 2021.
- H. J. D. C. D. GÜNEK, "MURAT NEHRİ HAVZASININ (FIRAT) SU POTANSİYELİ VE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ," vol. 11, no. 16, pp. 141-163, 2011.
- H. Ritchie, M. Roser, and P. J. O. w. i. d. Rosado, "CO₂ and greenhouse gas emissions," 2020.
- M. J. N. R. M. C. B. Chaplin, "Do we underestimate the importance of water in cell biology?," vol. 7, no. 11, pp. 861-866, 2006.
Abstract
Hidro-meteorolojik eğilimlerin tanınması ve kuraklığın izlenmesi, havza ve bölgesel düzeyde iklim değişikliği ve değişkenliğinin değerlendirilmesi için çok önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Murat Nehri Havzası'ndaki kuraklığı değerlendirmek için Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI) kullanılmış ve çeşitli zaman dilimlerinde on yedi istasyondan alınan aylık veriler analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen 17 yağış ve 18 sıcaklık istasyonlarının aylık verilerinin homojenliğini analiz etmek için Wallis ve Moore testi kullanılırken, eğilimleri değerlendirmek için Mann-Kendal testleri kullanılmıştır. Murat Nehri Havzası'ndaki 17 meteoroloji istasyonundan elde edilen verilerin analiz edildiği çalışmada, 2014 ve 2018 yıllarında yağış eksikliği ve şiddetli kuraklık tespit edilmiştir. Mann-Kendall testi, 17 istasyondan alınan aylık yağış verilerinde bir azalma eğilimi olduğunu göstermiştir. 18 istasyondan alınan sıcaklık verileri, 4025 numaralı istasyon hariç, artış eğilimi göstermiştir. Çalışma, artan sıcaklıklar ve azalan yağışların gelecekte su arzında düşüşe yol açacağını, su kaynaklarını ve toprak nemini azaltarak sosyo-ekonomik yaşamı etkileyeceğini öne sürmektedir.
Keywords
İklim Değişikliği Trend Analizi Kuraklık Analizi Murat Nehri Havzası Standart Yağış Endeksi (SPI).
References
- C. Sagan, W. R. Thompson, R. Carlson, D. Gurnett, and C. Hord, "A search for life on Earth from the Galileo spacecraft," Nature, vol. 365, no. 6448, pp. 715-721, 1993.
- J. R. Westmacott and D. H. J. J. o. H. Burn, "Climate change effects on the hydrologic regime within the Churchill-Nelson River Basin," vol. 202, no. 1-4, pp. 263-279, 1997.
- J. Peñuelas and M. J. T. i. p. s. Staudt, "BVOCs and global change," vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 133-144, 2010.
- M. White, A. Smith, K. Humphryes, S. Pahl, D. Snelling, and M. Depledge, "Blue space: The importance of water for preference, affect, and restorativeness ratings of natural and built scenes," Journal of Environmental Psychology, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 482-493, 2010, doi: 10.1016/j.jenvp.2010.04.004.
- J. J. R. o. p. i. p. Houghton, "Global warming," vol. 68, no. 6, p. 1343, 2005.
- D. A. Wilhite and M. H. Glantz, "Understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions," Water international, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 111-120, 1985.
- H. Aksoy et al., "SPI-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis," in 13th International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering, Izmir/Turkey, 2018.
- L. Kurnaz, "Drought in Turkey," İstanbul Policy Center, Sabancı Üniversitesi-İstanbul, 2014.
- V. Gumus, Y. Avsaroglu, and O. Simsek, "Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann− Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods," Journal of Earth System Science, vol. 131, no. 1, p. 34, 2022.
- M. I. Yuce and M. Esit, "Drought monitoring in Ceyhan basin, Turkey," Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 293-314, 2021.
- M. İ. YÜCE et al., "SPI ve SPEI ile Samsun İli Kuraklık Analizi," Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 285-295, 2022.
- R. Yadav, S. Tripathi, G. Pranuthi, and S. Dubey, "Trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test for precipitation and temperature for thirteen districts of Uttarakhand," Journal of Agrometeorology, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 164-171, 2014.
- M. Ç. Karabörk, E. Kahya, and A. Ü. J. H. P. A. I. J. Kömüşçü, "Analysis of Turkish precipitation data: homogeneity and the Southern Oscillation forcings on frequency distributions," vol. 21, no. 23, pp. 3203-3210, 2007.
- M. Firat, F. Dikbas, A. C. Koç, and M. J. S. Gungor, "Missing data analysis and homogeneity test for Turkish precipitation series," vol. 35, pp. 707-720, 2010.
- W. A. Wallis and G. H. J. J. o. t. A. S. A. Moore, "A significance test for time series analysis," vol. 36, no. 215, pp. 401-409, 1941.
- P. E. McKight and J. J. T. c. e. o. p. Najab, "Kruskal‐wallis test," pp. 1-1, 2010.
- M. G. Kendall, "Rank correlation methods," 1948.
- F. Wang et al., "Re-evaluation of the power of the mann-kendall test for detecting monotonic trends in hydrometeorological time series," vol. 8, p. 14, 2020.
- T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, "The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales," in Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 1993, vol. 17, no. 22: Boston, pp. 179-183.
- H. Wu, M. J. Hayes, A. Weiss, and Q. J. I. J. o. C. A. J. o. t. R. M. S. Hu, "An evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index, the China‐Z Index and the statistical Z‐Score," vol. 21, no. 6, pp. 745-758, 2001.
- D. Halwatura, A. Lechner, and S. Arnold, "Drought severity–duration–frequency curves: a foundation for risk assessment and planning tool for ecosystem establishment in post-mining landscapes," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 1069-1091, 2015.
- M. I. Yuce, M. J. J. o. A. W. E. Esit, and Research, "Drought monitoring in Ceyhan basin, Turkey," vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 293-314, 2021.
- M. I. Yuce, M. Esit, V. J. J. o. A. W. E. Kalaycioglu, and Research, "Investigation of trends in extreme events: a case study of Ceyhan Basin, Turkey," pp. 1-16, 2022.
- M. Pala and M. İ. J. A. E. J. Yüce, "Comparative Rainfall-Runoff analysis of the Upper Murat River Basin in Turkey in context of Hydro-Meteorological variables," vol. 75, pp. 479-493, 2023.
- K. Yenigün, V. Gümüş, and H. Bulut, "Trends in streamflow of the Euphrates basin, Turkey," in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Water Management, 2008, vol. 161, no. 4: Thomas Telford Ltd, pp. 189-198.
- H. GÜNEK, "MURAT NEHRİ HAVZASININ (FIRAT) SU POTANSİYELİ VE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ," Doğu Coğrafya Dergisi, vol. 11, no. 16, pp. 141-163, 2011.
- W. H. Fattah and Y. J. I. J. o. A. IMi, "Hydrological analysis of Murat river basin," vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 47-55, 2015.
- A. Koçyiğit, A. Yilmaz, S. Adamia, and S. Kuloshvili, "Neotectonics of East Anatolian Plateau (Turkey) and Lesser Caucasus: implication for transition from thrusting to strike-slip faulting," Geodinamica Acta, vol. 14, no. 1-3, pp. 177-195, 2001/01/01 2001, doi: 10.1080/09853111.2001.11432443.
- N. Avşin, M. K. Erturaç, E. Şahiner, and T. J. Q. Demir, "The Quaternary Climatic and Tectonic Development of the Murat River Valley (Muş Basin, Eastern Turkey) as Recorded by Fluvial Deposits Dated by Optically Stimulated Luminescence," vol. 4, no. 3, p. 29, 2021.
- H. J. D. C. D. GÜNEK, "MURAT NEHRİ HAVZASININ (FIRAT) SU POTANSİYELİ VE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ," vol. 11, no. 16, pp. 141-163, 2011.
- H. Ritchie, M. Roser, and P. J. O. w. i. d. Rosado, "CO₂ and greenhouse gas emissions," 2020.
- M. J. N. R. M. C. B. Chaplin, "Do we underestimate the importance of water in cell biology?," vol. 7, no. 11, pp. 861-866, 2006.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Distributed Computing and Systems Software (Other) |
| Journal Section | Makaleler |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | April 30, 2024 |
| Submission Date | November 9, 2023 |
| Acceptance Date | April 22, 2024 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2024 Volume: 11 Issue: 22 |
